Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress

On a simple level, Democrats have 30 more House seats than Republicans and 31 more women in the House.  Similarly, Democrats have 11 women in the Senate, six more than Republicans.  Their margin in each chamber is exclusively among women members.

A study of House members elected from 1916 through 2004 showed some interesting results.  Republican women were more moderate politically, came from tougher districts to win than Republican men, were more urban or suburban and came from better educated , more white collar districts.  In the last 15 years, the number of women in the House boomed going from the high 20's to 74.  With 53 Democratic women and 21 Republicans, there is a huge gender gap on Capitol Hill.  In fact, in 2006 the number of Republican women in the House actually declined from 22 to 21.

Overall, 22.8% of House Democrats are women and 10.4% of House Republicans.  The figures are very similar for the Senate.  About half of the difference comes from one state: California.  Republicans elected 18 men and 1 woman; Democrats elected 18 men and 16 women.

I had expected, because women often get to run in real long shot races, that the percentage of women elected to Congress would be lower than the percentage of men who are elected.  That simply was not the case in 2006.  Republicans elected 21 of 42 women (50%);  they won in 46% of all districts.  Even adjusting for seats left unopposed, women more than held their own.  Similarly, Democratic women won 53 of 95 races against Republicans (55.8%), also about a five point edge.  With ten vacancies, men won 179 of 330 seats they contested (54.2%).

The trend among Republicans was particularly strong in the Northeast and the Pacific coast.  A long line of moderate Republican women in the Northeast has completely disappeared in the House.  None of the 24 GOPers from the region are women.  Nancy Johnson, Sue Kelly, and Melissa Hart all lost their seats in 2006.  Recent moderates like Marge Roukema, Christy Todd Whitman, and Millicent Fenwick from New Jersey, Margaret Heckler from Massachusetts, Connie Morrella from Maryland and the three 2006 losers represented an important source of Republican talent.  The remnants of it can be seen in the Maine ladies in the Senate and Jody Rell (Connecticut Governor).  Only widow Mary Bono and Cathy McMorris Rogers represent the GOPers in the House from the Pacific.  Again, Lisa Murkowski in the Senate and Sarah Palin and Linda Lingle as Governors try to hold the Republican fort.

Many of the GOPer women in the House are now harsh extremists and some are lousy candidates.  This would include Jean Schmidt, Barbara Cubin, Marilyn Musgrave, and Virginia Foxx (Foxx is a good candidate but consistently ranks as one of the five most extreme members of the House.

I haven't adjusted for the districts, but I think that women candidates win about 5% more often (adjusted) than men in a general election.  That is roughly equivalent to the edge enjoyed in major league baseball by lefthanded pitchers. Lefties account for 15% of the population and about twice that proportion among pitchers.  The Republican bias against choosing women candidates (particularly moderates) is just stupid and, well, astounding.  It will cost them more and more as the years go by.



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Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

I saw an extremely interesting study in this regard years ago. It reported that Republicans would be much better off running women in Democratic leaning districts. The study indicated Democrats and Independents would be 10% more likely to support a GOP female than male, everything else being equal.

However, the problem was getting the nomination. GOP men and women judged a female candidate much more harshly than a male candidate, not strong enough. Democrats and Independents prioritized the strengths while Republicans focused on that supposed weakness as a leader.

Also, are there simply fewer GOP female politicians to begin with? I have no idea. Since women are more progressive and Democratic leaning than men I wonder if that equates to fewer GOP female politicians, especially at high level and capable of competing for federal office?

Plus, aren't many of the Democratic females in congress black? Of the top of my head I just thought of at least 8 or 9. If Republicans had a 90% voting block like that and districts where the demographic dominated, I think you would see more GOP females in congress.

That 15% sounds a bit high to me, in terms of left handers as a percentage of the population. I've generally seen it two or three points lower than that, albeit a higher percentage of left handed boys than lefty girls. Normally studies indicate that boys are 2 to 3% more likely to be left handed than girls. So it could be 15% of men are left handed and that applies to your baseball example.

I'm left handed so I've always paid attention to numbers like that. It's startling in the sports betting circles in Las Vegas, the percentage of lefties. I remember once we were getting ready for the Stardust lottery on Sunday night and someone pointed out that 6 of the 7 of us in one group were left handed. There must be something that attracts lefties to that form of numbers-oriented pursuit. I've always wondered about the stock market in that regard.


by Gary Kilbride on Wed May 09, 2007 at 11:41:58 PM EST

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

I found that study I mentioned. It's called, "The Trouble With Republican Women."

It's a PDF and I'm having problems linking it here, but if you Google that exact phrase it will show up first.


by Gary Kilbride on Wed May 09, 2007 at 11:57:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP to try women in Dem districts (none / 0)

As I'm sure you know, there was a good example of that up here in VT, when Martha Rainville ran for Congress.  It was a smart move, and there were a startling number of people I knew who at least initially just gravitated to her because, I guess, it would be great to elect a woman, despite their progressive ideals.

No idea how they all voted in the end, but I'm guessing that Rainville still did a far sight better than a man would have who ran the same incredibly flawed campaign.  She managed to make Vermont somewhat competitive to the end, largely due to being a wholly narrative-based candidate, the key part of which is that she was a woman military leader.


Tim Wolfe

John McCain is not pro-choice!

by bruorton on Thu May 10, 2007 at 11:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

I read a few days ago that women make up 55% of the electorate.  They are no longer averse to voting for their own gender, quite the opposite.   We see lots more women in power than we ever have (Pelosi, Feinstein, Boxer, Clinton, etc.)   Women are currently defining and driving the Democratic campaign by their support for Clinton.  While Clinton holds her own with men, gets about the same percentage of men as Obama, she holds a very strong edge amongst women, and that has been the difference in the presidential nomination race so far.  


by georgep on Thu May 10, 2007 at 12:00:59 AM EST

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

I know you didn't just refer to Melissa Santorum-junior-Hart as a moderate, right? ;)


by Quinton on Thu May 10, 2007 at 05:14:54 AM EST

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

More like referring to the defeated class of three as moderate.  By GOP standards Sue Kelly was moderate.  Nancy Johnson actually was kind of moderate.  I had no idea where Melissa Hart stood, frankly.  Thanks for the correction.


by David Kowalski on Thu May 10, 2007 at 06:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

Melissa Hart ("Jesse Helms in drag") was anything but a progressive. She was an ally of Rick Santorum, held his former Congressional seat, voted to the right of Jesse Helms on some issues, and was thought to be in line to run for U.S. Senate for Specter's seat when he retires or dies (has cancer).  She would have given the Santorum wing of the Party two Senate seats from PA. I, for one, was thrilled when Altmire beat her.


by mikeSEPa on Thu May 10, 2007 at 07:23:22 AM EST

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (none / 0)

Indeed. She and Rick typically campaigned together in past years and were a pretty much a package deal. You're right about her being as seen as in line for Spector's senate seat.


by Quinton on Thu May 10, 2007 at 05:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gender Bias Cost GOP Congress (3.00 / 1)

I read some years ago that in countries where the percentage of women in congress or parliament reaches 40%, the political culture shifts to a more socially conscious, less authoritarian and militaristic one.  As a matter of fact, the article, which I have lost, said that women heads of state where their parliament is less than 40% women often behave more like Margaret Thatcher.  It seems that the country as a whole has to shift.

I pay close attention, campaign, and contribute to candidates across the country, based largely on what the Democratic political blogs say, but because the blog candidates are almost all men, I have to go to Emily's List to find women candidates, and I make sure half of my candidates are women.  I don't necessarily want the blogs to set quotas, but we could try to promote at least 40% women, since we women make up more than half the population and probably around 60% of Democrats.


by prince myshkin on Thu May 10, 2007 at 10:11:41 AM EST


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