Democrats won 30 House seats in 2006 and lost none. That simple picture obscures a slightly more complex statistic. Democrats in 2006 elected 42 new members to the House and "lost" just three members elected during the Bush years (2000 through 2005). That is a lot of new blood. Republicans lost 30 seats and managed to fill only 14 seats of departing members. One of the interesting side stories of 2006 is that the largest class in the House had been the Republicans elected in 1994, the largest group for a full 12 years. Now, not only is the class of 2006 Democrats the largest group but the largest Republican group is the bunch elected in thewar on terror scare of 2002.
Overall, aside from the 2006 totals, the Democrats largest advantage is now among the old bulls. Fourteen Democrats and only six Republicans predate the Reagan administration. The senior Republican, CW Bill Young of Florida, was first elected in 1970 a full fifteen years after John Dingell. Totals by administration are: George W. Bush (92 D, 92 R), Clinton (86 D, 74 R), George H. W. Bush (21 D, 13 R), Ronald Reagan (20 D, 17 r), and pre-Reagan (14 D, 6 R).
The year by year totals from the W years show a clear separation. The Republicans had a clear advantage in bringing in fresh blood early in the Bush years: 10 D, 19 R from the class of 2000 remain, 2 D 6 R from 2001, 15 D and 29 R from 2002. The middle years divided about evenly with 20 D and 21 R from 2004 and 0 and 1 and 1 and 2 edges from 2003 and 2005.
Bush babies comprise over 45% of the 202 Republicans (a number likely to increase following Charlie Norwood's death and the special election in Georgia (Norwood was one of the members of 1994). The largest classes of Bush babies come from, appropriately enough, Florida (10 of the 16 Republican House members) and Texas (9). Overall, Bush babies are a bit more conservative and a bit less independent than Republican House members as a whole. The 11 lowest scores on Progressive Punch belong to Bush babies.
The long term impact of this group is uncertain. The large Republican class of 1994 was comprised of many more followers than leaders. The signature class from that year, Washington's six GOP members has been whittled down to one (Doc Hastings). Republicans lost three of the other five seats and have a slim grip on Dave Reichert's seat and not much better on WA-5 (Cathy McMorris). Four GOP House members from that class are now senators (Chambliss, Brownback, Burr, Ensign). Just four of the ten Republican senators elected that year are still in office (Kyl, Snowe, Hutchison, Thomas) and six are gone (Abrahams, Grams, DeWine, Santorum, Fred Thompson, Frist). By far the biggest Republican impact came from a Governor elected that year: George W. Bush.
I suspect that the long term impact of Bush, strengthened by the 2008 election will be to bring fresh blood to the Democrats in the House.
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