Iowa was  the most Democratic state won by George W. Bush in 2004.  Bush won by just 0.57% of the popular vote while nationally he managed a 2.46% edge.  In 2000, Gore took Iowa by aminiscule 0.32% while he managed to score a .52% triumph in the popular vote.  In short, while Iowa switched from blue to red in the electoral college. the state swung from red (+0.19%) tp blue (+1.89%) in its electoral lean.  In 2006, Democrats won the governorship and both Houses of the state legislature while picking up 2 additional seats in the US House.  It has just seven electoral votes but Democratic chances in Iowa in 2008 look very, very good.

New Mexico may have provided the closest "real" election results in 2000 with Al Gore winning by a slim 0.06%.  In 2004, New mexico had a hugely controversial election won by Bush by 0.79%.  The state had the highest percentage in the country of uncounted ballots with uncounted votes among blacks and latinos running three times the rate of uncounted votes for anglos.  These votes were located almost entirely in touch screen districts.  What the controversy barely masked is that New Mexico, like Iowa, switched its electoral lean from Republican (0.45%) to Democratic (+1.67%).  Democrats have consistently won the state wide total vote for Congress (averaging 55% of the vote from 2000 on) but have won only 1 of the 3 House seats in the state (2002 to the present).  With the US Attorney scandal centering on New Mexico, look for clean elections and a Democratic victory in 2008.

Of course, Democrats could win the Kerry states plus New Mexico and Iowa and still lose the electoral college.  Those two states only push the count back towards where Al Gore landed without Florida (actually a little less at 264 votes).  Adding the fourth state, Nevada, would produce an intriguing electoral tie at 269-269.  John Kerry gained 0.95% on Al Gore's totals in Nevada while losing over 3 points nationwide.  With the state's lean (PVI) reduced from 4.05% R to 0.13% R and shrinking, Nevada is also a high likelihood target.

Kerry closed 1.5 points on Gore in Ohio and the state's lean swung all the way from 4.02% R to 0.36% D.  In 2006, both of the major statewide races (Governor, US Senate) produced Democratic victories.  The departure of Ken Blackwell as Secretary of State is also likely to reduce the extent of Republican election day tricks in Cleveland and Columbus.  Ohio by itself would produce a Democratic win.  With the addition of the other states, it would give a comfortable (but not overwhelming) cushion to absorb any reverses in places like Wisconsin.

But if 289 electoral votes appears the likely result of an even race what would a small to middling Democratic win in the popular vote produce?  

The next state likely to fall on the political logjam would be Colorado.  Colorado has clearly been headed blue.  On a raw score basis, Bush won the state by 8.46% in 2000 and by a much smaller 4.67% in 2004.  Adjusting for national trends, the state's Republican lean has been chopped from 8.97% in 2000 to 2.21% in 2004.  Democrats picked up a Senate and a House seat in 2004 plus a House seat and the governorship in 2006.  That would bring the national total to 298 votes.

The next state on the chart is the first one heading Republican: Florida.  George W. Bush is credited witha 0.01% "win" in 2000 and a 5.01% win in 2004.  Even allowing for national trends, the results moved the republican lean from 0.52% to 2.55%.  Republicans continue to control both houses of the legislature and the governorship as well as 16 of the state's 25 House seats.

Missouri, a classic and often heart-breaking state is next on the chart.  Bush won the state by 7.10% giving it a Republican lean of 4.64% in 2004.  His 3.34% win in 2000 gave MO a similar lean of 3.85% in 2000.  Throw in Claire McCaskill's Senate victory in 2006 and the state would seem to have no real trend and a small Republican lean.  It will go for the Democrat in a good year but more often, MO will opt for the Republican.

The next state on the chart is also from the south but it has been going from one of the more Republican states in the region to one of the more Democratic ones.  That, of course, is Virginia.  Besides electing Democratic governors the last three elections and a Democrat to the US Senate. Virginia has moved from a Republican lean of 8.54% in 2000 to a lean of 5.76% in 2004.  The state's raw vote barely moved from +8.03% R in 2000 to +8.20% R in 2004.  Figure a Republican lean of about 3% in 2008 (perhaps less if Mark Warner was on the ticket).  The odds of a democratic win in Virginia seem to be, in my opinion, about the same as Democratic chances in Florida.

Neither Arkansas (+9.70% Bush, lean of +7.30%, up from 5.96% in 2000) nor Arizona (+10.47% Bush, lean of 8.01%, up from 6.79%) is a likely win.  Each, however, looks better on paper than such heavily followed states as West Virginia and Montana.  Montana had a very good Democratic year in 2004 but reduced its lean only from R +25.59% to R + 18.05%.  Bush win West Virginia in 2004 by a stunning 15 points.  No, the likely pickups are from the A List.  Let's get to work.